Lebanon’s political panorama has undergone a dramatic shift with the election of Joseph Aoun as president. After greater than two years of political impasse, the Lebanese Parliament elected the military commander on Thursday with 99 out of 128 votes.
Aoun’s election represents a major achievement for the anti-Hezbollah camp, reflecting the weakening affect of the highly effective Shia terrorist group inside Lebanon’s political system. Regardless of this, specialists say Hezbollah stays a formidable pressure within the nation, and the challenges Aoun faces in balancing Lebanon’s inside politics and international relations stay immense.
For a lot of the previous two years, Hezbollah labored tirelessly to dam any motion towards the election of a brand new president. The group had strongly opposed Aoun’s candidacy. Nevertheless, because the political state of affairs advanced and the ousting of Assad from Syria unfolded, Hezbollah was finally compelled to simply accept Aoun, who secured the presidency.
“Hezbollah had been against his election for the final two and a half years and had blocked any course of towards electing a president for all that point. Now, they’ve voted for him within the second spherical, which signifies they’re in a bind, that they’re weaker, and their leverage will not be what it was,” Vice President for Worldwide Engagement on the Center East Institute Paul Salem advised Fox Information Digital.
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Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun evaluations the honour guard upon his arrival on the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as the brand new president in Beirut on Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photograph/Hussein Malla)
Salem factors to the broader shift in regional politics, notably the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which has left Hezbollah more and more remoted. “They’re no longer solely lower off from Iran, however they’re additionally remoted within the area. They’re the one Shiite group between right here and Basra, and it’s a Sunni takeover of Damascus, which was once dominated by a pleasant Alawite, pro-Iranian regime. It’s an enormous historic shift that leaves the Shiites and Hezbollah deeply remoted. Hezbollah’s future is worse than its current,” he added.
The U.S. and Israel, together with different Western and Arab powers, have lengthy sought to distance Lebanon from Hezbollah’s affect, and Aoun’s election may very well be a step in that route.
Aoun, a Maronite Christian and the commander of the Lebanese military, took workplace with a powerful message targeted on Lebanon’s sovereignty. In his inaugural speech, he emphasised the need for the state to have a monopoly on the usage of pressure.
David Schenker, former head of the Bureau of Close to Japanese Affairs on the U.S. State Division underneath the primary Trump administration, remarked that Aoun’s speech was each a constructive and pragmatic step for Lebanon. “He talked about disarming all teams and making certain that weapons are underneath the management of the state,” Schenker stated. “This was a superb transfer, because it reveals a dedication to sovereignty and the rule of legislation.”
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An up to date graphic detailing the members of Hezbollah’s management who’ve been eradicated by the Israeli Protection Forces. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)
Nevertheless, Schenker, who’s at present the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, cautioned that Aoun’s place as president doesn’t grant him absolute energy in Lebanon’s political system. “The president will not be probably the most highly effective place in Lebanon. The important thing place would be the prime minister. It stays to be seen whether or not Aoun will present the identical braveness in his new position that he demonstrated as chief of workers,” Schenker famous.
Although Hezbollah has been militarily weakened by latest Israeli campaigns and the assassination of its chief Hassan Nasrallah, amongst different key leaders, it nonetheless retains vital affect, significantly in southern Lebanon. Nevertheless, Schenker says the group’s potential to intimidate Lebanon’s inhabitants is diminishing. “Hezbollah isn’t the pressure it was. It could nonetheless reactivate its killing machine if wanted, however it now not dominates the way in which it did earlier than,” he stated.
“Hezbollah has calculated that they’ve misplaced this battle in opposition to Israel, after which they misplaced one other battle in Syria. So their curiosity now could be to put low, have a president and authorities that’s acceptable to the U.S. and the area, which, on the finish of the day, they hope will defend them from any additional Israeli incursions and assist their individuals,” Salem defined. “They want a functioning authorities to safe worldwide help for the thousands and thousands displaced by their actions in southern Lebanon. It’s about survival for them, not simply politically, however financially.”
Hezbollah terrorists kind a human barrier in the course of the funeral procession of slain prime Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Aug. 1, 2024. (Photograph by KHALED DESOUKI/AFP by way of Getty Pictures)
Aoun’s election will not be solely vital for Hezbollah’s place in Lebanon, but additionally for the nation’s relations with exterior powers just like the U.S. and Israel. Lebanon has confronted financial collapse, with its forex devalued by over 99%, and practically 80% of the inhabitants now dwelling beneath the poverty line. Hezbollah’s earlier resistance to worldwide stress now appears much less tenable.
The U.S. has lengthy supported Lebanon’s navy and is anticipated to strengthen its ties with Aoun, given his position within the military and his pro-sovereignty stance. Schenker stated that Lebanon’s future alignment with the U.S. and regional allies equivalent to Saudi Arabia might present the nation with much-needed worldwide assist.
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Lebanese cupboard ministers applaud the newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, standing on the prime, as he offers his first speech at Parliament after being sworn in as president in Beirut on Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photograph/Hussein Malla)
“The U.S. navy has been near the Lebanese navy for a few years,” Salem advised Fox Information Digital. “That has been the strongest hyperlink between the U.S. and Lebanon. So to have the pinnacle of the navy come to energy, he’s a recognized determine in Washington. He’s recognized to the navy, and now, he’s recognized to the diplomats and politicians, and shall be recognized to President Trump and others over time. This realignment might put Lebanon on a way more pure path of cooperation with the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and different regional allies.”
Israel can even be intently monitoring Aoun’s presidency. Schenker stated that Aoun’s dedication to U.N. Safety Council Decision 1701, which requires disarmament in southern Lebanon, might result in a extra cooperative stance from Lebanon towards Israel. “Israel shall be invested in Lebanon’s implementation of 1701,” Schenker stated. “Aoun’s stance will affect Israel’s place towards Lebanon, because the Trump administration has clearly signaled a want to finish the wars within the area.”
